Senators vs Lightning Prediction

Overall: venue ignored · using games through Nov 2, 2026

50%16

Toss-up: Senators by a hair (50.4%) · projected 3.2–3.5

Senators 56%

Senators #5 vs Lightning #16 in our rankings (network centrality).

Lightning 56%

Lightning by 0.6 goals here, from 5 comparisons.

Lightning 53%

Projected Senators 3.2, Lightning 3.5 from opponent-adjusted goals scored and allowed.

Senators and Lightning common opponents · 5

Against the same teams: Senators went 4–2, Lightning went 3–3. The edge compares average margins, as played.

Opponent	Senators	Lightning	Edge
Golden Knights	L 1–4 away, Oct 27	W 6–2 away, Oct 20	TB +7.0
Rangers	W 7–4 home, Oct 24	L 1–5 away, Oct 1 L 1–4 away, Oct 13	OTT +6.5
Flyers	W 2–1 home, Oct 8 L 1–3 away, Oct 17	W 4–1 home, Oct 5	TB +3.5
Predators	W 3–2 home, Oct 10	L 4–5 away, Oct 31	OTT +2.0
Islanders	W 2–1 home, Oct 15	W 5–3 away, Oct 10	TB +1.0