Penguins vs Lightning Prediction

Overall: venue ignored · using games through Nov 2, 2026

65%16

Our pick: Lightning, 65% to win · projected 3.2–3.7

Lightning 75%

Penguins #29 vs Lightning #16 in our rankings (network centrality).

Lightning 72%

Lightning by 2.2 goals here, from 6 comparisons.

Lightning 56%

Projected Penguins 3.2, Lightning 3.7 from opponent-adjusted goals scored and allowed.

Penguins and Lightning common opponents · 6

Against the same teams: Penguins went 1–6, Lightning went 3–3. The edge compares average margins, as played.

Opponent	Penguins	Lightning	Edge
Golden Knights	L 2–6 away, Oct 17	W 6–2 away, Oct 20	TB +8.0
Capitals	L 3–5 away, Oct 7	W 3–1 home, Oct 3	TB +4.0
Jets	L 2–3 home, Oct 5	W 6–4 home, Oct 29	TB +3.0
Predators	W 3–2 home, Oct 24	L 4–5 away, Oct 31	PIT +2.0
Avalanche	L 2–5 away, Oct 16	L 3–6 away, Oct 23	Even
Mammoth	L 4–5 away, Oct 19 L 3–4 home, Oct 29	L 4–5 away, Oct 24	Even