Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction

Overall: venue ignored · using games through Nov 2, 2026

48%16

Our pick: Maple Leafs, 52% to win · projected 3.4–3.7

Maple Leafs 60%

Maple Leafs #3 vs Lightning #16 in our rankings (network centrality).

Maple Leafs 51%

Maple Leafs by 0.1 goals here, from 8 comparisons.

Lightning 54%

Projected Maple Leafs 3.4, Lightning 3.7 from opponent-adjusted goals scored and allowed.

Maple Leafs and Lightning common opponents · 8

Against the same teams: Maple Leafs went 4–4, Lightning went 4–5. The edge compares average margins, as played.

Opponent	Maple Leafs	Lightning	Edge
Avalanche	W 6–3 away, Oct 10	L 3–6 away, Oct 23	TOR +6.0
Golden Knights	L 3–4 away, Oct 8	W 6–2 away, Oct 20	TB +5.0
Islanders	L 1–4 home, Oct 17	W 5–3 away, Oct 10	TB +5.0
Rangers	W 5–4 home, Oct 22	L 1–5 away, Oct 1 L 1–4 away, Oct 13	TOR +4.5
Predators	W 5–4 home, Oct 6	L 4–5 away, Oct 31	TOR +2.0
Kraken	L 4–5 away, Oct 28	W 4–3 home, Oct 15	TB +2.0
Mammoth	L 4–5 away, Oct 13	L 4–5 away, Oct 24	Even
Canucks	W 4–2 away, Oct 31	W 4–2 home, Oct 17	Even