Our rankings
Maple Leafs 53%
Capitals #4 vs Maple Leafs #3 in our rankings (network centrality).
Overall: venue ignored · using games through Nov 2, 2026
Toss-up: Maple Leafs by a hair (50.3%) · projected 3.6–3.4
Maple Leafs 53%
Capitals #4 vs Maple Leafs #3 in our rankings (network centrality).
Capitals 55%
Capitals by 0.5 goals here, from 4 comparisons.
Capitals 51%
Projected Capitals 3.6, Maple Leafs 3.4 from opponent-adjusted goals scored and allowed.
Against the same teams: Capitals went 3–1, Maple Leafs went 2–2. The edge compares average margins, as played.